Monday, October 01, 2007
Russian Democracy Shell Game
Putin is suggesting that he will step down from his position as President as required constitutionally and serve instead as Prime Minister. Can we say Dick Cheney on Steroids.
On Being Late
Michael Munger has interesting post on people's tendencies to be late. In short, incompetent people tend to be late for meetings.
Infinite Injustice
Britney Spears is being forced to give custody of her children to man-whore/baby-mama maker/Britney despoiler/my idol Kevin Federline. When K-Fed is the stable parent you know the kids are going be fucked up.
More on Social Security
Liberals claim that the conservative hysteria over social security is misplaced. They are half-right, social security is certainly a small bore problem in comparison to medicare. However, I think other oft repeated claim with regards to social security, namely, that it is fine shape for a couple of decades is deeply misleading. Social Security does have valid claims in the Trust Fund, the problem is what those claims mean for the rest of the budget. Megan McArdle puts the issue quite well:
"And though the long term projections have gotten somewhat better as a result of improving fertility, the short-term projections have gotten slightly worse. Ten years ago we thought that program income would fall below program outlays in 2019; now the projected date is 2017. Meanwhile, the estimated year in which the social security surplus will peak has also moved steadily backwards, to 2010. In 2011, a small hole will appear in the general fund budget as OASDI revenues start to decline, a hole that will become a gaping wound by 2020. From the Social Security Administration's perspective this is fine, but from the taxpayers perspective, this is a huge problem that needs to be, well, fixed--and from which economic growth is unlikely to rescue us."
"And though the long term projections have gotten somewhat better as a result of improving fertility, the short-term projections have gotten slightly worse. Ten years ago we thought that program income would fall below program outlays in 2019; now the projected date is 2017. Meanwhile, the estimated year in which the social security surplus will peak has also moved steadily backwards, to 2010. In 2011, a small hole will appear in the general fund budget as OASDI revenues start to decline, a hole that will become a gaping wound by 2020. From the Social Security Administration's perspective this is fine, but from the taxpayers perspective, this is a huge problem that needs to be, well, fixed--and from which economic growth is unlikely to rescue us."
Ad-Supported Cell Phones
Tyler Cowen is blogging on the concept here. The idea is that you would enroll in a service that instead of charging you a certain amount for you phone service would buffet you with ads before you are able to call. I think this has niche market potential but nothing more. Those, who hardly use their cell phone and thus don't want to pay for a subscription service might be inclined to get such a phone. However, by the same token you could get a drug dealer phone where you pay as you go. This the premise of the GooglePhone which makes me think it will be a flop.
Steven Landsburg Coming to GMU
For those of you in the D.C. area Steven Landsburg will be lecturing at GMU Thursday Oct. 4 at Enterprise Hall room 80. He is the author of More Sex Is Safer Sex: The Unconventional Wisdom of Economics and the Armchair Economist.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Chess Champion Garry Kasparov to Run For Preseident
Kasparov represents Russian Democracy's best hope.
Friday, September 28, 2007
Pipe Dream
I was reading a bit over at the Financial Times about a global warming conference Bush summoned with all of the other big polluters (side note: in German the word for polluter is umweltverschmutzer, which amounts literally to something like earth dirty maker). Bush seems to have transitioned from the earth ain't warming, to the earth is warming but it is unclear what the causes are, to ok, the science is settled. Now I don't think there is much likelihood Bush will actually do anything substantive (like a revenue neutral carbon tax) other than maybe propose another alternative energy R&D tax credit or a tax deduction for purchasing a energy efficient domestically produced washers or other electronic appliances (maybe Maytag is a political contributor to the bushes). But I think maybe there is a chance that he would like to leave office with some warm fuzzies and after the unmitigated disaster that this administration has been (read: Iraq, Katrina, Gonzalez, etc.), something like climate change would allow for a bold bipartisan action to put a prettier patina on Bush's legacy. That said, I am not holding my breath.
Edwards Opts In To Public Financing
This surprises me. And the campaign is pretty straightforward about it, they aren't waxing poetic about the virtues of public finance but rather speaking of the need for cash as fundraising hasn't been up to par.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Bryan Caplan Rails Against Stupid Voters
He lists four irrational biases that voters tend to have:
Anti-Market Bias
Anti-Foreign Bias
Make-Work Bias
Pessimistic Bias
Anyhow, giver her a looksie, Caplan is always worthwhile.
Anti-Market Bias
Anti-Foreign Bias
Make-Work Bias
Pessimistic Bias
Anyhow, giver her a looksie, Caplan is always worthwhile.
Econoblogosphere Diagramed
Portfolio.com has a cool diagram with links of the economics blogging community. Take note of the GMU mafia.
The Futility of Exercise?
Gary Taubes has an interesting article in the New York Magazine on why exercise doesn't do too much for weight loss.
Get Advesarial on Facebook
Stop adding friends on Facebook, get the enemybook application and add enemies.
The Case for Prostitution
Here is an interesting, really more depressing/humorous, argument for prostitution. The author is an aussie and he is not arguing so much for prostitution's legality but rather how prostitution is preferable to lying to get into a girl's pants. I disagree, but food for thought.
The French, Romney, and Republican Malaise
The Economist Euro Blog "Certain Ideas of Europe" has a little post on the poor dental hygiene practices of French children. Now they are relaying information as presented in Le Figaro and it appears that the article is piss poor reporting (a sample of two dentists quoting statistics without citation). That said, Europeans do have piss poor hygiene. What interests me is whether Mitt Romney somehow manages to fashion this into a campaign slogan or punchline. I can just imagine it "if we go forward with this socialized medicine business our children will be stopped in their tracks by vast European style bureacracies that ration toothbrushes and toothpaste." It is unfortunate but at the moment the republican base are a bunch of cheap dates that seem to be riveted by talk of killing jihadis, the damn French, and cutting taxes. A central tenet of Romney's campaign has actually been to talk shit about France. Not that I don't enjoy making French jokes ("I have a good French rifle for you, it's only been dropped once") but it doesn't constitute a policy prescription or a governance philosophy. If a republican wants to win the election they will have to discover a compelling narrative and this is usually rooted in sensible and appealing policy prescriptions. One arrives at sensible policy prescriptions by developing their own ideas and engaging others in order to determine their fitness, not by making jokes about how Europeans are a bunch of cheese eating, post historical, socialist surrender monkeys.
Hillary's Non-Inevitability
Hillary is starting to pull away from the pack in terms of polling (nevermind the fact that the Caucuses are still a ways away). The punditocracy is contemplating whether or not she will be able to bag the competition for good. I say no as the media likes a good story, a horse race, and will ensure that there is one.
Romney's Campaign is Starting to Crater
Romney's polling in New Hampshire has fallen off precipitously. If this happens in Iowa too I think he will be moving onto the second tier.
Obama's Strategy
Pundits are starting to question the wisdom of Obama's campaign strategy. Thus far he has been reluctant to take any shots at Hillary. I think this is a prudent strategy. If we look back at 2004 Gephardt was the favorite in Iowa and Dean was leading the national polls. Dean and Gephardt started to exchange blows through the airwaves and ultimately dragged each other down. Kerry and Edwards stayed out of this skirmish and surprised everybody during the caucus. I think Obama will keep his hands clean in hopes of Edwards bringing Hillary down a peg and knocking himself out in the process.
Best Line Ever by a Presidential Candidate
"I stuck the credit-card companies with $90,000 worth of debt!". Mike Gravel's response to a question about his personal bankruptcy. Inspiring.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Petrov Day
I did not know this but 9/26 is Petrov Day. He is a Russian that saved the world and then suffered immeseurably because of it. No, really it's true, check it out.
Facebook Etiquette
Reihan Salam gives the rundown. I don't have enough friends where I have to worry about "un-friending" somebody. One of the few upsides to being a prick.
Gore to Run?
So Christopher Hitchens muses:
"So, and if I am right, the former vice president will then complete a year in which An Inconvenient Truth has been awarded an Oscar and he has authored a best seller. Roll it round your tongue again: an Oscar, a best seller, and a Nobel Prize in the space of 12 months or so. Not bad. And meanwhile, the field of Democratic candidates looks—how shall one put it?—a trifle etiolated. Sen. Clinton may have succeeded in getting people to call her "Hillary" and to have made them feel resigned to her front-runnership, but what kind of achievement is that? Sen. Obama cannot possibly believe, and doesn't even act as if he believes, that he can be elected president of the United States next year. John Edwards is a good man who is in politics for good reasons, but there is something about his populism that doesn't quite—what's the word?—translate.
Apart from the awards, not only could Gore claim that he had been a fairly effective senator and a reasonably competent vice president, he could also present himself in zeitgeist terms as the candidate who was on the right side of the two great overarching questions: the climate crisis and the war in Mesopotamia. Should I add that, whether or not he really won the Electoral College in 2000, he did manage to collect the majority of the popular vote? Several people, some of them well-informed, have been saying to me that Gore will wait until the Nobel committee's announcement before he makes up his mind. Should he make up his mind to run, he could alter the entire equation."
I think I saw this prediction before.
"So, and if I am right, the former vice president will then complete a year in which An Inconvenient Truth has been awarded an Oscar and he has authored a best seller. Roll it round your tongue again: an Oscar, a best seller, and a Nobel Prize in the space of 12 months or so. Not bad. And meanwhile, the field of Democratic candidates looks—how shall one put it?—a trifle etiolated. Sen. Clinton may have succeeded in getting people to call her "Hillary" and to have made them feel resigned to her front-runnership, but what kind of achievement is that? Sen. Obama cannot possibly believe, and doesn't even act as if he believes, that he can be elected president of the United States next year. John Edwards is a good man who is in politics for good reasons, but there is something about his populism that doesn't quite—what's the word?—translate.
Apart from the awards, not only could Gore claim that he had been a fairly effective senator and a reasonably competent vice president, he could also present himself in zeitgeist terms as the candidate who was on the right side of the two great overarching questions: the climate crisis and the war in Mesopotamia. Should I add that, whether or not he really won the Electoral College in 2000, he did manage to collect the majority of the popular vote? Several people, some of them well-informed, have been saying to me that Gore will wait until the Nobel committee's announcement before he makes up his mind. Should he make up his mind to run, he could alter the entire equation."
I think I saw this prediction before.
Brilliant Advice
Van Gogh on producing good work "you have to eat well, be well housed, have a screw from time to time, smoke your pipe and drink your coffee in peace.".
The Vote is In
I blogged a bit back about Marc Ecko, I labeled him a PeP Hero, and his winning bid for Barry Bond's 756th home run ball. Ecko set up a website allowing visitors to vote on what to do with the ball 1. Bestow it (give it to the hall of fame untouched); 2. Brand it (put an asterisk on the ball and send it to the hall of fame); 3. Banish it (send off to space). Well the vote is in:
A) BESTOW IT - 34% B) BRAND IT - 47% C) BANISH IT - 19%.
A) BESTOW IT - 34% B) BRAND IT - 47% C) BANISH IT - 19%.
GM/UAW Strike Over
That was quick. The crux of the settlement is that the UAW will take over the health care for the workers. GM will provide a cash infusion at the outset and then wash its hands of the liability. This arrangement is modeled on the Goodyear compromise from not too long ago.
Why Be Effective When You Can Be Ineffective
Here are 7 habits of highly ineffective people. Learn these and you too can be a fed.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Bhutto Returns to Pakistan
Don't know exactly what this means but it seems to be a victory for the State department in the ongoing (dare I say eternal) turf war between State and Pentagon. Not knowing much about her rule except anecdotal info from some Pakistani friends is that she sucked, just in a different if not better or worse way than Musharraf.
Another Victory for Inumbency, Erg.
Apparently the gerrymandering reform in California is dead. I blogged about it here.
Big Time Baby
We are on the blogroll for Voxbaby. Voxbaby is run by Dartmouth Economist and Director of the Nelson A. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College. Unlike myself, he would be considered intelligent, accomplished, and respected. So this is quite the coup. As Ron Burgundy would say "We're kind of a big deal."
Sarkozy on Iran
Sarkozy has been talking tough on Iran which is out of character for European heads of state who are usually keen on playing the part of good cop to our bad cop in foreign policy when they agree with American foreign policy makers. It will be interesting to see how this develops. Pres. Bush went to war in spite of the vehement opposition of much of the world, what happens when a France is supportive and Germany mum on the issue?
Monday, September 24, 2007
O'Reilly Has an Epiphany
Bill O'Reilly recently sat down for lunch with Rev. (or race hustler/poverty pimp) Al Sharpton at Sylvia's in Harlem where he was shocked by the service. Media Matters has the goods:
'Bill O'Reilly reported that he "had a great time, and all the people up there are tremendously respectful," adding: "I couldn't get over the fact that there was no difference between Sylvia's restaurant and any other restaurant in New York City. I mean, it was exactly the same, even though it's run by blacks, primarily black patronship." Later, during a discussion with National Public Radio senior correspondent and Fox News contributor Juan Williams about the effect of rap on culture, O'Reilly asserted: "There wasn't one person in Sylvia's who was screaming, 'M-Fer, I want more iced tea.' You know, I mean, everybody was -- it was like going into an Italian restaurant in an all-white suburb in the sense of people were sitting there, and they were ordering and having fun. And there wasn't any kind of craziness at all."'
Classic!
'Bill O'Reilly reported that he "had a great time, and all the people up there are tremendously respectful," adding: "I couldn't get over the fact that there was no difference between Sylvia's restaurant and any other restaurant in New York City. I mean, it was exactly the same, even though it's run by blacks, primarily black patronship." Later, during a discussion with National Public Radio senior correspondent and Fox News contributor Juan Williams about the effect of rap on culture, O'Reilly asserted: "There wasn't one person in Sylvia's who was screaming, 'M-Fer, I want more iced tea.' You know, I mean, everybody was -- it was like going into an Italian restaurant in an all-white suburb in the sense of people were sitting there, and they were ordering and having fun. And there wasn't any kind of craziness at all."'
Classic!
Low Hanging Fruit
I think one of the things that should emerge given there is a consensus amongst health care policy experts is that a lot of health care spending is purely wasteful and for that matter harmful. I don't know if politicians will pick this up and run with it because the general formula for a campaign is for politicians to promise new spending not efficient spending.
There Are No Gays In Iran
'Mr. Ahmadinejad said: “In Iran, we don’t have homosexuals like in your country. We don’t have that in our country.”
Classic. Borat nodded approvingly.
The audience booed and hissed loudly.
“In Iran, we do not have this phenomenon,” Mr. Ahmadinejad continued, undeterred. “I do not know who has told you that we have it.'Classic. Borat nodded approvingly.
Sunday, September 23, 2007
How Europe is Different
Gabriele Pauli, who is the favorite to become head of the Christian Social Union (CSU) in Bavaria, has proposed that civil marriages automatically expire every seven years unless the married couple opts to "renew" the marriage. Some background, in Germany marriage is conducted in two separate ceremonies, one a state or civil marriage, and two, a church marriage. In order for your marriage to be recognized by the state you must conduct a civil marriage, and it cannot be conducted in a church. The Christian Social Union is the Bavarian equivalent of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) which prevails in the rest of Germany. Think of the DFL in relation to the Democratic party. I lived in Germany and this comes as no surprise to me. I think it has a fighting shot of passing.
Unite not Divide
While running for president Bush often claimed that he wanted to be a "Uniter, not a Divider". Well, if we look at public opinion polls I would say he has succeeded, just not in the manner he wanted.
Obama Launches a Lead Balloon
Obama is putting out a trial balloon on raising the cap for payroll taxes. Currently only the first $97k of income is subject to payroll taxes. The cap is indexed for inflation. Now it is certainly true that Social Security needs either more cash, fewer obligations, or a mixture of both. My objection with raising the cap on payroll taxes right now is that this would provide Congress with an additional $1 trillion over ten years to piss away. If past is prologue, Congress will take the additional revenues and use it to plug gaps in the general budget. The net result will be that people will be taxed at a higher level ostensibly to shore up social security without the intended end being satisfied. This is the virtue of personal accounts, it keeps the money out of congress's hands.
Pack is Back
Packers beat the Chargers. I am sure the Chargers are satisfied with their big offseason decisions, though let's recap: pussyfooted on the notion of whether to can Schottenheimer or not, watched Cam Cameron and Wade Phillips pick up head coaching gigs, then canned Marty Schottenheimer, and then hiring Norv Turner who has lost everywhere he has coached (including an abysmal tenure with the Redskins).
Newt May Run...
Or maybe not. He says he will run if he is able to put together $30 million by November 1st. I don't see that happening but I wouldn't be surprised. The republican slate is a bunch of pygmies. Huckabee is the only one that has impressed but from a policy perspective his proposals are to put it charitably, hopelessly naive.
Health Care: Tough Nut to Crack
Here is David Cutler over at Cato Unbound:
"We observe that areas that spend 30 percent more than other areas do not get better outcomes. It is possible that randomly cutting 30 percent of spending in high spending areas would not affect outcomes. But this is not likely. Cutting spending by 30 percent would almost surely eliminate some valuable services as well as some less valuable ones. One could make up for the loss of valuable services by providing other services that are low cost but not currently provided. Overall health might not be affected, but money would be saved. Better still would be to selectively eliminate the care that has little value and provide the other services that are valuable but are not currently provided. This would leave us spending less and with better health. I believe we can do this, but the task is harder than it seems at first pass. We don’t do ourselves any favors by pretending it is easy."
"We observe that areas that spend 30 percent more than other areas do not get better outcomes. It is possible that randomly cutting 30 percent of spending in high spending areas would not affect outcomes. But this is not likely. Cutting spending by 30 percent would almost surely eliminate some valuable services as well as some less valuable ones. One could make up for the loss of valuable services by providing other services that are low cost but not currently provided. Overall health might not be affected, but money would be saved. Better still would be to selectively eliminate the care that has little value and provide the other services that are valuable but are not currently provided. This would leave us spending less and with better health. I believe we can do this, but the task is harder than it seems at first pass. We don’t do ourselves any favors by pretending it is easy."
Friday, September 21, 2007
Toyota and GM in a Pissing Match
Autoblog chronicles the PR battle Toyota is starting to launch against GM on one of the car it is developing, the plug-in hybrid Volt. What this speaks to really is not that GM is about to take the world by storm with Green Cars but that it (and really all of the car makers) are starting to develop in earnest cars that will have a smaller environmental impact. Coupled with a carbon tax from the government I think this development could be accelerated significantly.
Thoughts on the Jena Six
I don't really know what exactly happened with the Jena Six but from what I gather a white kid hung a noose on a tree which is offensive beyond words, inflammatory only begins to describe it. That said, beating somebody till they are unconcious, then beating them some more afterwards doesn't strike me as particulary kosher either. Even if there was significant provocation, which there clearly was here.
Bloggers Wanted
Dani Rodrik asks of his readers which economist they would like to see start a blog. Joseph Stiglitz comes out on top. I would like Edmund Phelps and Amartya Sen to start a blog.
WTF!?!?!
This from Jeffrey Rosen's piece on Justice Stevens:
"A natural place for a Democratic president to start looking for candidates would be to choose a justice in the model of Breyer, Ginsburg or Souter. But liberal interest groups are unlikely to be satisfied with a justice in their molds for the simple reason that none of them are considered liberal enough."
I can imagine liberal folks won't be keen on a Souter replica, but Breyer or Ginsberg, especially Ginsberg. Am I missing something?
"A natural place for a Democratic president to start looking for candidates would be to choose a justice in the model of Breyer, Ginsburg or Souter. But liberal interest groups are unlikely to be satisfied with a justice in their molds for the simple reason that none of them are considered liberal enough."
I can imagine liberal folks won't be keen on a Souter replica, but Breyer or Ginsberg, especially Ginsberg. Am I missing something?
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Statements That Will Make You Dumber
This from Dick Cheney in the WSJ:
“We have steadily reduced the annual rate of growth in non-security discretionary spending.”
Now I have already explained why this sort of statement is stupid before but let me rehash: The government could be characterized as an insurance company with a side business in defense. Outlays disproportionately go to Defense, Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security (Homeland Security has a healthy and growing budget but it is still relatively small). Only defense is discretionary, which obviously has grown significantly, ergo "non-security spending". The entitlement program outlays are non-discretionary. The only way there will be a "cut in the rate of growth" in entitlement spending is if all of a sudden it becomes really cheap to treat seniors or everybody dies before they are eligible for Social Security; or, you change the relevant statutes that determine entitlement benefits. In fact, the administration did reform Medicare benefits, it added them thus making Medicare more costly. To say that you have decreased discretionary spending is a worthless claim. This administration hasn't done squat in terms of reining in spending.
“We have steadily reduced the annual rate of growth in non-security discretionary spending.”
Now I have already explained why this sort of statement is stupid before but let me rehash: The government could be characterized as an insurance company with a side business in defense. Outlays disproportionately go to Defense, Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security (Homeland Security has a healthy and growing budget but it is still relatively small). Only defense is discretionary, which obviously has grown significantly, ergo "non-security spending". The entitlement program outlays are non-discretionary. The only way there will be a "cut in the rate of growth" in entitlement spending is if all of a sudden it becomes really cheap to treat seniors or everybody dies before they are eligible for Social Security; or, you change the relevant statutes that determine entitlement benefits. In fact, the administration did reform Medicare benefits, it added them thus making Medicare more costly. To say that you have decreased discretionary spending is a worthless claim. This administration hasn't done squat in terms of reining in spending.
Fred Thompson is Sexy?
Garance Franke-Ruta of the American Prospect and her personal blog the Garance answers in the negative.
Building on Ilya's Thoughts
Ilya is correct, the concept of Iraq is a fiction. The only compelling rationale for being there at this point is to referee the partitioning of Iraq. In Mickey Kaus' terminology to keep it as a "small hell" as opposed to a "big hell".
Envisaging Reality in Iraq
I haven't posted in a while - but this description of life in Iraq is just too arresting. It says it all. It's from the journalist Nir Rosen, who has been doing excellent work reporting on this mess. Check out his blog.
"Iraq" is a fiction; what exists are bands of petty countries, each fighting for dominance.
"The only way to avoid being seized by one of the many militias that terrorize Iraq is to travel with your own militia."
"Iraq" is a fiction; what exists are bands of petty countries, each fighting for dominance.
PeP Hero of the Month
Marc Ecko, the fashion designer, placed the winning bid for Barry Bonds 756th home run ball, the home run that broke Hank Aaron's record. He has created a website where you can go and vote on what he should do with the ball: 1. Give it to the hall of fame, 2. Brand it with an asterisk and give it to the hall of fame, 3. Banish it to outerspace. I say vote 2.
Maryland, Erg
So I just moved to Takoma Park, MD from Arlington, VA. They are about 10 miles about and similar from a socioeconomic standpoint. What I don't understand is how my auto insurance premium jumped from $330 per six months to $850. I have always maintained that Montgomery County drivers are worse than those of Northern Virginia but not nearly three times worse. In fact, everybody in the DC metropolitan area is a bad driver. My neighborhood is not bad, no worse than my previous neighborhood in Arlington in terms of safety. Evidence of this is the fact that my renters insurance only increased by 10% from the move. My guess is that Maryland prohibits insurers from assessing risk by using credit scores but that is just a shot in the dark. Anybody else have any guesses.
Ramesh Ponnuro On Republican Tax Proposals
Ramesh Ponurro has a great op-ed over at the NY Times on how the republican candidates are botching the tax issue.
DCPS
Matt Yglesias has an interesting post on D.C. public schools. He talks about the "undercrowding" which is an odd problem to have.
Sullivan Wrong on Part of Obama Tax Plan
From the AP:
"The IRS would send prefilled tax forms to 40 million workers who take the standard deduction and have a bank account. They would simply have to sign and return it, which Obama estimates would save more than $2 billion in tax preparer fees, 200 million hours of work and "an incalculable amount of headache and heartburn."
Andrew Sullivan's blog title reads- "Obama's Tax Pander." The first line of his post reads- "He'll get the government to do your taxes for you!" I don't think this is all that controversial. A lot of Americans don't itemize because they have nothing to deduct. The government has already witheld their taxes and computed the liability. The reason why one might oppose such a policy is that you don't want people completely detached from the effects of fiscal policy. That said, this doesn't seem all that controversial to me.
"The IRS would send prefilled tax forms to 40 million workers who take the standard deduction and have a bank account. They would simply have to sign and return it, which Obama estimates would save more than $2 billion in tax preparer fees, 200 million hours of work and "an incalculable amount of headache and heartburn."
Andrew Sullivan's blog title reads- "Obama's Tax Pander." The first line of his post reads- "He'll get the government to do your taxes for you!" I don't think this is all that controversial. A lot of Americans don't itemize because they have nothing to deduct. The government has already witheld their taxes and computed the liability. The reason why one might oppose such a policy is that you don't want people completely detached from the effects of fiscal policy. That said, this doesn't seem all that controversial to me.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Suggested Weekend Jaunt for Those in D.C.
Apparently there is a scotch distillery in Sperryville, VA, the Copper Fox Distillery. I knew that you could get shine aplenty once you drove a decent distance out of the city but I had no idea you could find a scotch distillery. It's like Christmas in September. It's about 1.5 hours from D.C./NOVA. I've been to Sperryville, it's a cute little town with an emphasis on little. It's nestled at the foothills of the Appalachias around the Shenandoah National Park. Also, I would heartily recommend the Virginia Wine Country (especially the vineyards around Charlottesville- try the Viognier or Cabernet Francs).
Breaking Nascar News
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. will be driving the Mountain Dew car, way cooler than the Budweiser car, almost as cool as Kyle Petty's Mello Yello car from back in the day. Ricky Bobby's WonderBread car still reigns supreme.
Obama's Tax Plan, Part 1
Here is Obama on the Mortgage Interest Deduction:
"Today, we have a mortgage interest deduction, but it only goes to people who itemize on their taxes. Like so much in our tax code, this tilts the scales toward the well-off. Only a third of homeowners take advantage of this credit."
Ok, I'm with him on that. Tax deductions will always benefit those who are taxed the most, the wealthy. But read on.
"I’ll create a mortgage interest credit so that both itemizers and non-itemizers get a break. This will immediately benefit 10 million homeowners in America. The vast majority of these are folks who make under $50,000 per year, who will get a break of 10 percent of their mortgage interest rate. For most middle class families, this will add up to about $500 each year. This credit will also extend a hand to many of the millions of Americans who are stuck in the subprime crisis by giving them some breathing room to refinance or sell their homes."
How about instead of instituting fairness through more complexity in the tax code do it through simplicity, scrap the mortgage interest deduction. Is subsidizing home-ownership more compelling than say, health care? Or wage subsidies so that people can make their own choice on how to spend their money?
"Today, we have a mortgage interest deduction, but it only goes to people who itemize on their taxes. Like so much in our tax code, this tilts the scales toward the well-off. Only a third of homeowners take advantage of this credit."
Ok, I'm with him on that. Tax deductions will always benefit those who are taxed the most, the wealthy. But read on.
"I’ll create a mortgage interest credit so that both itemizers and non-itemizers get a break. This will immediately benefit 10 million homeowners in America. The vast majority of these are folks who make under $50,000 per year, who will get a break of 10 percent of their mortgage interest rate. For most middle class families, this will add up to about $500 each year. This credit will also extend a hand to many of the millions of Americans who are stuck in the subprime crisis by giving them some breathing room to refinance or sell their homes."
How about instead of instituting fairness through more complexity in the tax code do it through simplicity, scrap the mortgage interest deduction. Is subsidizing home-ownership more compelling than say, health care? Or wage subsidies so that people can make their own choice on how to spend their money?
Another New Blog
It's the "End Poverty in South Asia" blog. As one might imagine it is a development blog and it is run by Shanta Devarajan of the World Bank.
TPMCafe
I have been reading TPMCafe which is absolutely top notch. One of the best blogs out there. Their regular contributors, all significantly to the left, are very smart. But they also attract some of the best conservative pundits and think tankers there are for their roundtable discussions. That said, the commenters on the site are atrocious. It makes the dailykos comments section look like like a panel discussion at Brookings. This is not a bash of the dailykos, it is what it is, which is a grassroots movement. The writing and contributors at TPMCafe are at such a high level, it's a shame that every comment is some sort of ad hominem attack.
The Return of the Ute
Grow your mullets, GM is thinking about bringing back the Camino/Caballero (A Camino is shown on the left). Though, it appears that an Ute would be brought back under the Pontiac or GMC badge. For those that are unfamiliar with a "Ute" or the Camino it is essentially part sedan/part pickup truck. To me it seems unseemly but I guess there is a following for this sort of thing. I guess it is the best of both worlds type of thing. A more recent rendition of the "Ute" was the Subaru Baja which was positively ugly which made it all the more endearing. I actually thought about getting one for my new car but opted instead for the ever masculine VW Rabbit.Consumer Directed Health Care
Robin Hanson has an important point over at Cato Unbound which hits on the utility of increased cost sharing or consumer directed health care. I have previously mentioned the Rand Study which is cited by health care experts as the authority as it is the only randomized longitudinal study in the health care field.
Conservatives have maintained that consumer directed health care will lead to super savvy health care consumers who are able to bargain down costs and skimp on only inefficient care and revolutionize medicine as we know it. This premise has motivated the health care reforms that the Bush Administration has pushed, namely, Health Savings Accounts. Liberals have rightly pointed out that this is all a bit pie in the sky. Health care is such a complex field that is unlikely that consumers will get it right and that they will likely skimp on important care yielding unfortunate health outcomes. Or to put in other words, putting medical decisions in the hands of consumers is too risky. To validate this claim liberals often cite the Rand study. In the Rand study, patients were randomly assinged health plans that differed in the level of cost sharing. It is true that the Rand study showed that those that had higher levels indiscriminately skimped on medical treatments that were both effective and ineffective. This is true but ultimately in spite of the reduced care, those patients that had higher cost sharing did not demonstrate statistically significant differences in health outcome. While this does not necessarily support the conclusion that cost sharing will rid health care of all its woes, it does seem to disabuse the notion that cost sharing will harm the consumer. The consumer won't get better care or worse care, just less of it.
Conservatives have maintained that consumer directed health care will lead to super savvy health care consumers who are able to bargain down costs and skimp on only inefficient care and revolutionize medicine as we know it. This premise has motivated the health care reforms that the Bush Administration has pushed, namely, Health Savings Accounts. Liberals have rightly pointed out that this is all a bit pie in the sky. Health care is such a complex field that is unlikely that consumers will get it right and that they will likely skimp on important care yielding unfortunate health outcomes. Or to put in other words, putting medical decisions in the hands of consumers is too risky. To validate this claim liberals often cite the Rand study. In the Rand study, patients were randomly assinged health plans that differed in the level of cost sharing. It is true that the Rand study showed that those that had higher levels indiscriminately skimped on medical treatments that were both effective and ineffective. This is true but ultimately in spite of the reduced care, those patients that had higher cost sharing did not demonstrate statistically significant differences in health outcome. While this does not necessarily support the conclusion that cost sharing will rid health care of all its woes, it does seem to disabuse the notion that cost sharing will harm the consumer. The consumer won't get better care or worse care, just less of it.
Super Duper Blog
Check out this blog: Rebuilding Place in the Urban Space. It is run by Richard Layman an Urban Development and Revitilizatin Consultant (from what I can tell that is how to make crappy neighborhoods nice). Niche blogs like these are the type of blogs that make the blogosphere so interesting. It presents good topical information but also access to expertise.
Walking Tours
If you are ever in D.C. you should do a walking tour. While D.C. is navigable by car, and it does have a pretty decent public transit system (not NYC level but good), walking is the best way to experience D.C.
Segways For Everyone
There is apparently a segway based polo league. This sounds incredibly lame. BTW, does anybody know anybody that actually owns a segway, like, a real person. Not a security guards or a Super Duper rich person that uses one to cart around his compound.
D.C. Almost #1
D.C. is tied with Atlanta for most congestion. L.A. takes the cake. Silver ain't bad.
Blogger Awards
The America's Future Foundation is giving away $10,000 to the best "liberty-minded" campus blogger (that's code for libertarian or small-government conservative). I am too old to enter (25 is the age cutoff and you have to be in grad or undergrad), otherwise I would clearly win. My co-bloggers while also quite talented, not as talented, certainly not as prolific, but talented, are pinkos and are thus not qualified for this particular bounty.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Snooty Eco-Friendly People Mover Niche?
Here is Mickey Kaus with an idea for a new car:
"Wanted--A Brentwood EcoZoomBox: Here's a lucrative market niche none of the auto manufacturers seem to have spotted: There is a huge pent-up demand among the West Side L.A. parents I meet for a) a minivan, meaning something like a front-drive SUV but with a Honda-Elementish low floor and ride height; b) big enough to have 7 seats; c) hip enough for a mom to be able to drive it and get admiring glances; d) hybrid, in a way that advertises its hybridness to the world (meaning essentially that it would be available only as a a hybrid). It wouldn't have to get 40 m.p.g. It could get 22 m.p.g.--as long is it got certifiably better m.p.g. than the non-hybrid equivalent. The point isn't to save the planet so much as to advertise how the planet might be saved--not necessarily a hypocritical posture... Since top mileage would not be a requirement, it could also be e) fast. ... This combination seems eminently do-able, but there's nothing I see on the market now that fills the bill. The Prius meets (c) and (d) but not (a) or (b)."
"Wanted--A Brentwood EcoZoomBox: Here's a lucrative market niche none of the auto manufacturers seem to have spotted: There is a huge pent-up demand among the West Side L.A. parents I meet for a) a minivan, meaning something like a front-drive SUV but with a Honda-Elementish low floor and ride height; b) big enough to have 7 seats; c) hip enough for a mom to be able to drive it and get admiring glances; d) hybrid, in a way that advertises its hybridness to the world (meaning essentially that it would be available only as a a hybrid). It wouldn't have to get 40 m.p.g. It could get 22 m.p.g.--as long is it got certifiably better m.p.g. than the non-hybrid equivalent. The point isn't to save the planet so much as to advertise how the planet might be saved--not necessarily a hypocritical posture... Since top mileage would not be a requirement, it could also be e) fast. ... This combination seems eminently do-able, but there's nothing I see on the market now that fills the bill. The Prius meets (c) and (d) but not (a) or (b)."
"Upward Redistribution to the Rich"
Over at TPM Cafe's book club Jonathon Chait spoke of the Bush tax cuts as an "upward redistribution to the rich". I find this positively orwellian. The implication is that the government is taking the money from somebody (middle class or the poor) to pay the rich when in fact they are simply taking less money from the rich. There are conceivably instances where the government redistributes from the poor or the middle class to the rich, some have argued that Social Security is mildly regressive (the tax is a flat tax, it's capped, and the rich live longer), but income taxes don't fit this description. What Chait really means is that the Rich should have less of their money so that the government can spend more on goodies (education, health care, farm subsidies, whatever) to benefit the middle class or lower income folks. In fact, I find the whole business of labeling taxes and the like as a redistribution a bit misleading as it presumes an original distribution. It is not as if one day we awake with our bank accounts full of our yearly allowance, rather, our income, savings, and debts are the function of millions of independent transactions.
Sperm Markets
Apparently there is differential pricing for sperm on the basis of the education level attained by the donor. I suppose this is a good thing, I never thought much about it. I wonder how much I could get. I have a masters and am pursuing a JD.
More Edwards
"The lesson Senator Clinton seems to have learned from her experience with health care is, 'If you can't beat 'em, join 'em.' I learned a very different lesson from decades of fighting powerful interests - you can never join 'em, you just have to beat 'em…
"And to show Congress just how serious I am, on the first day of my administration, I will submit legislation that ends health care coverage for the president, all members of Congress, and all senior political appointees in both branches of government on July 20th, 2009 - unless we have passed universal health care reform.
I wonder when he speaks of joining the special interests if working for Fortress Investments counts. I guess it was to learn about poverty (at $500k a year- part-time no less, that's a pretty sweet gig), like how to foreclose on a Katrina victim's home.
"And to show Congress just how serious I am, on the first day of my administration, I will submit legislation that ends health care coverage for the president, all members of Congress, and all senior political appointees in both branches of government on July 20th, 2009 - unless we have passed universal health care reform.
I wonder when he speaks of joining the special interests if working for Fortress Investments counts. I guess it was to learn about poverty (at $500k a year- part-time no less, that's a pretty sweet gig), like how to foreclose on a Katrina victim's home.
Interesting Development
Iraq has banned the Blackwater Security Company. Blackwater, like other private security firms, are not held to any of the particulars that order combat conducted by the military. So in essence they can shoot first and ask questions later. Part of the U.S. military strategy has been to lean on these firms so that the Administration can limit its political exposure by not having as many troops on the ground. Even with this backdoor troop augmentation there have clearly been an inadequate number of troops to stabilize the country. I think this will exacerbate matters. That said, it does show that the Iraqi government is showing some autonomy. Whatever, it's all a mess.
Pervert Alert
US Attorney arrested for trying to have sex with a five year old. You dirty pervert, off to jail for you.
Oil Hits New High
Does that mean Edwards will call for a new round of investigations of oil companies while bemoaning excessive carbon emissions?
More on Health Care
I think there is really an absence of realistic discussion of first principles for healthcare reform. Everybody and their brother speaks of universality but more importantly are issues of affordability (both for an individual and in the aggregate), access, and innovation. These three elements do not all move in the same direction but are ultimately in competition. Most commentators and politicians agree that health care expenditures consume too great a portion of GDP and the rate of growth in this sector is too high. What do the Democratic proposals do to corral this growth? In my view it doesn't look like cost containment is even considered in these proposals. There seems to be some sort of premise that if we have universality that health care will be cheap of a sudden, as if universality of coverage were some sort of pixie dust. If you achieve universality of health coverage merely by extending SCHIP and subsidizing insurance you are not addressing the cost issue, rather you are exacerbating it.
Monday, September 17, 2007
DayJet and Air Taxi
James Fallows has an excellent post on Air Taxi service. The development and affordability of VLJs (Very Light Jets) has made the air taxi business model possible.
Off to the Wilderness We Go
Here is Jim Geraghty of the Campaign Spot:
"Hillary offers her health care plan, and Giuliani criticizes it, Romney criticizes it... I'd be surprised if we didn't have reaction quotes from McCain and Thompson shortly. This is a bit like last week with the MoveOn.org ad. The GOP candidates' comments are all fine, but notice that the forces on the left create the issue, and the Republican candidates respond. One is left wondering what it would take for a Republican candidate to throw down a gauntlet or put out an argument or idea that everyone else would have to respond to..."
Thus far, on the issues that matter (Mainly, Iraq and Health Care) the republican candidates have opted for truly banal statements as opposed to anything substantive. I don't really anticipate Thompson or McCain to come up with a health care proposal that goes beyond "let's extend the tax exemption to small businesses". This is small beer, indeed. And I don't really think that the candidates will be able to break out of this box as long as they confine themselves on some of the republican tax dogma. For instance, let's say Giuliani were to propose a revenue neutral carbon tax, well, Grover Norquist and company would jump down his throat for proposing a new tax. Never mind that such a proposal would be revenue neutral with an offset in either income or payroll taxes. The Anti-tax pledge that I believe all of the major candidates have signed onto is not even limited to tax rates but extends to deductions and credits. I doubt this will change until Republicans get whupped in '08 and possibly in '10.
"Hillary offers her health care plan, and Giuliani criticizes it, Romney criticizes it... I'd be surprised if we didn't have reaction quotes from McCain and Thompson shortly. This is a bit like last week with the MoveOn.org ad. The GOP candidates' comments are all fine, but notice that the forces on the left create the issue, and the Republican candidates respond. One is left wondering what it would take for a Republican candidate to throw down a gauntlet or put out an argument or idea that everyone else would have to respond to..."
Thus far, on the issues that matter (Mainly, Iraq and Health Care) the republican candidates have opted for truly banal statements as opposed to anything substantive. I don't really anticipate Thompson or McCain to come up with a health care proposal that goes beyond "let's extend the tax exemption to small businesses". This is small beer, indeed. And I don't really think that the candidates will be able to break out of this box as long as they confine themselves on some of the republican tax dogma. For instance, let's say Giuliani were to propose a revenue neutral carbon tax, well, Grover Norquist and company would jump down his throat for proposing a new tax. Never mind that such a proposal would be revenue neutral with an offset in either income or payroll taxes. The Anti-tax pledge that I believe all of the major candidates have signed onto is not even limited to tax rates but extends to deductions and credits. I doubt this will change until Republicans get whupped in '08 and possibly in '10.
OJ's Bond Hearing
OJ's bond hearing will be today to determine if he is a flight risk and whether or not he should be released on bail. I hope desperately that the court errs in judgment and will allow him to post bail for his release. I just love White Bronco chases scenes.
Clinton Proposes Limiting Healthcare Deduction
"Making the Employer Tax Exclusion for Healthcare Fairer: The plan protects the current exclusion from taxes of employer-provided health premiums, but limits the exclusion for the high-end portion of very generous plans for those making over $250,000."
-courtesy of Ezra Klein.
This is a good first step but it is all too modest. There is little sense in the health care exemption. By having one it simply necessitates higher marginal rates for the same people that are most likely to benefit from exempting health care from income taxes. How about we just get rid of the exemption and reduce marginal rates by the amount of revenue gained by getting rid of the exemption?
-courtesy of Ezra Klein.
This is a good first step but it is all too modest. There is little sense in the health care exemption. By having one it simply necessitates higher marginal rates for the same people that are most likely to benefit from exempting health care from income taxes. How about we just get rid of the exemption and reduce marginal rates by the amount of revenue gained by getting rid of the exemption?
Sprint Does Something Good, Sorta
Sprint is piloting a product, AirRave, in Denver and Indianapolis. This will be like the T-Mobile VOIP bit I blogged about awhile back. Older folks, but probably some young people too, are reticent to completely get rid of their land lines because of the sometimes shaky quality of cell-phone calls. The other reason being intentional redundancy (for instance, 9/11 knocked out cell phones in the d.c. area not landlines, a couple of years later we had a hurricane and the opposite happened). The AirRave, from what I can tell, is essentially a router that will boost your signal at home. I am sort of surprised that they are offering this service as Sprint is primed to roll out a National WiMax service and I don't know how this would fit in.
Sunday, September 16, 2007
A First for IronChef
Rap Star (used in its most elastic sense) is on Iron Chef as a judge. Cat Cora is committing one of my biggest pet peeves, she has presented a dish with both a gelee and a foam. Nasty!
New VW Possibly Coming Stateside
This concept car is called the VW Up and it will be a rear engine car. I guess the design is a little bizarre but I like it. It looks like with gas prices staying high the trend of manufacturers developing subcompacts for sale stateside is here to stay.
More on Carbon Tax
Greg Mankiw has an Op-ed in the NY Times in favor of a carbon tax. He is currently serving as Mitt Romney's economics advisor, though, I don't think the Mittster has said boo about the carbon tax.
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