When Will RIM Go Out of Business

I have a blackberry through work and I have an android based phone. Even before I got my blackberry from work I never seriously considered using it as my personal phone (at the time I had a dumbphone). Even without ever fiddling around with an iPhone or Android phone the blackberry's limitations were pretty pronounced. My work throttles the use of it so this may not be entirely fair (the camera is disabled and the app store is disabled- no sexting on the work phone). The functionality that I do have is crap. The browser sucks. The UI is really clunky. I like physical keys but I have actually been surprised how the touchscreen keyboard is surprisingly tolerable (and if physical keys are a must you can get android based phones with them, though not an iPhone). My intuition is that RIM has business side pretty much locked down but is probably losing individual and family subscriptions at a steady clip (and to the extent they are maintaing those subscriptions they are probably subsidizing the phones at near cost or even a loss to keep a place in the market). At some point I would imagine that either Apple or Google will at least make a foray into getting some of the corporate or government market. When that happens I don't see how RIM survives.

Christmas and Other Predictions Revisited and Other Consumerist Musings

Back in the glory days of 2007 I predicted that a Blu Ray or an HD-DVD player would be an awful present as the format war had not yet been resolved (so your chance of getting the right format was only 50/50) but I also predicted the winning format would be obsolete soon thereafter as people would increasingly download their content. Frankly, I think I was right on that. Increasingly people are forgoing DVDs or Bluray or any physical media at all and are opting to stream their media (whether for pay or not, legally or not is a different matter). And netflix has been leading the charge.

In that same blogpost I rescinded a previous prediction that SmartCars would be a failure. I think I was too hasty to withdraw. SmartCars had an initial spark of enthusiasm but have since struggled for relevance as everyone has concluded that they suck.

The other thing that has been vexing me is the differing sizes of the tablets out there. The iPad is the standard at 10 inches basically resembling a netbook in size. The Samsung Galaxy Tab is 7 inches and the Dell Streak is only 5 inches. The Dell Streak to me could actually be more of a really large smart phone. The Droid X is 4.3 inches and I wouldn't characterize it as unwieldy. It's funny, the trend was to have the sleekest smallest form factor possible. But since the iPhone the trend has been to get as much screen space as your pocket will fit. But I digress. To me, the iPad is neither fish nor fowl. It is too large to be truly portable or much more so than a netbook. It doesn't really replace my normal computing needs as I do fiddle a lot with spreadsheets and like to run things at the same time. The one thing about the Galaxy tab is that it is a little more portable (maybe it can fit into your coat pocket but not your pant pockets). It could probably replace your GPS without obstructing your view like an iPad, though your smartphone could do the same. I don't quite get the tablet thing though I know a lot of people that have and love their iPads (I can't say the same for the Samsung Galaxy tab or any other android tab). I don't know where I come out on this. I have heard the tablets described as platforms for new applications that aren't really available today but that these newer form factors will facilitate (book-textbook size with touchscreen). I can imagine them in a health care or educational context of being very useful. In college you could see a math textbook slowly evolving into an interactive module that will interrupt you mid formula as you are going down the wrong path in a problem.

The Apple iPad

It will f$%k you up for life. Just Kidding. I don't really get it. It seems like a netbook with a little more content. It looks really pretty and some people think it will be the neatest thing since sliced bread. My track record is horrible on these things.

note: I don't think my predictions were totally off base about the smart car. They haven't taken the world by storm but they are common enough to be considered mainstream (to the extent that driving a clown car can be considered mainstream).

Auction Broadcast Spectrum

Presently broadcast television is allocated a certain/significant amount of spectrum, spectrum that could be used for other applications such as broadband. What is galling about this arrangement is that the government is conferring a scarce and hence extremely valuable resource for free. Mark Cuban suggests reclaiming the spectrum and auctioning it off. I wholeheartedly agree. In general, outside of reserving spectrum for first responders and for national security reasons I don't understand why the default presumption isn't to auction spectrum.

update: Whoops! I was hasty. Cuban also makes a good counter argument, along the lines of national security/emergency response, for why you wouldn't want to sell off spectrum. Anyhow, it's in interesting post, read it (all the way through I should say).

Google Chrome Now Available for Macs

Beta version here. Jiggity.

Android: iPhone Killer?

Probably not but it is a welcome development for consumer electronics geeks anyhow.  T-Mobile is launching the first Android based phone, the G1, in October.  Android is an open source, linux based operating system and it has been launched by Google. Anyhow, I have demonstrated total incompetence in forecasting consumer trends (see Smart Car, T-Mobile Wifi extender), so I won't venture to do so here.  

Google Chrome

I just downloaded Google Chrome (Google's new browser) at work (I have a Mac at home and they don't have a Mac version yet).  So far I like it.  It's simpler, less cluttered than firefox or internet explorer.

MacBook Air

I think it looks great like most Apple products but Apple has emphasized form at the expense of function with the MacBook Air. The only advantage it has over my MacBook is that it is two pounds lighter. For most people it is the screen size that determines the portability of a notebook (can you fit it in your purse or backpack with ease), not so much weight. It has a less storage and slower processing speed and according to the folks at Engadget it is impractical for some basic functions. Oh, and it is $600 dollars more expensive.

Mac Convert

James Fallows has another post on Vista and in turn how he has switched over to being Mac user. My experience is slightly different. As I was getting ready to enter law school I decided that it would be prudent to get a laptop. At this point all new lap tops came loaded with Vista and it was Vista's first year. I knew from all the previous rollouts of both Office and Microsoft Operating Systems that the first year or so was as if Microsoft had decided to market the beta version and then would go about in a piecemeal fashion and issue a variety of patches, sometimes for free and other times at considerable cost. Anyhow, I wanted to sidestep this process entirely and bought a Mac. I have been thorouhly pleased with it.

Coolest Thing EVER!

I don't know how this got past my attention because it is the most important development since the printing press or velcro: a unrinal based video game. In the game, it's a driving game, there is a tv above the urinal and you direct the car with your pee. That is simply brilliant. I am inspired.

HD-DVD/Blu-Ray Format War

The WSJ has a write-up of the ongoing format war between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. What it doesn't touch on is which way the porn industry has tilted? Piss poor reporting.

Solar Energy From Outerspace

Engadget has a little blurb on a study on the feasibility of setting up satellites to reflect light into remote areas of the world for use as energy.

Sprint Does Something Good, Sorta

Sprint is piloting a product, AirRave, in Denver and Indianapolis. This will be like the T-Mobile VOIP bit I blogged about awhile back. Older folks, but probably some young people too, are reticent to completely get rid of their land lines because of the sometimes shaky quality of cell-phone calls. The other reason being intentional redundancy (for instance, 9/11 knocked out cell phones in the d.c. area not landlines, a couple of years later we had a hurricane and the opposite happened). The AirRave, from what I can tell, is essentially a router that will boost your signal at home. I am sort of surprised that they are offering this service as Sprint is primed to roll out a National WiMax service and I don't know how this would fit in.

Pimp My JumboJet

I'm a bit late to the party on this one but this struck me as both incredibly cool and grotesque. Apparently, Lufthansa Technik is going to be doing a little side business of pimping out A380s (Airbuses JumboFlop) for CEOs and other assorted plutocrats. No word on whether Xzibit will be hosting a Pimp My Ride (JumboJets) episode.

I think I can hear Green Cowboy projectile vomiting.

Google Phone

Here's Businessweek speculating on the future of the Google Phone or the gPhone. I think it should be called the G-Unit. They could do a whole cross-branding thing with 50 cent. You hear that Sergei; racked up another PHAT finders fee!

More Apple Products

Here's the rundown courtesy of Engadget. Apple is rolling out a new iPod: the "fatty". It's basically like the nano but more squat and symetrical. They are marketing it as a cheaper more practical iPod video. They are also rolling out the iPod Touch, which is basically a phoneless iPhone. I don't really get the appeal because I don't like touchscreens but whatever.

Google Phone?

According to the folks over at Engadget Google is seriously considering coming out with a cell phone: the G-Phone. Sounds great. One of the reported features is that Google will actually upload all of your phone calls to a database at the National Security Agency to save them the trouble of wirelessly tapping your phone.

LA Times on Google Maps

The LA Times has an interesting article on some of the privacy concerns stemming from Google Maps. That said, they are a little late to the party, see here and here.

More News on Vista

The CEO of Acer talks smack about Vista here. Computerworld has advice on how to extend the life of XP on your computer here. More speculation about manufacturers and software providers longing for keeping XP here. In the meantime, this is a good reminder, I need to order my Mac.

More Vista

Here is more from James Fallows on his experience with Vista. Initial Verdict: Vista Sucks.