Humor from Andy Stern

"It is the greatest middle-class, job-creating mechanism that we have ever had in America that doesn't cost tax payers a dime."

This comes from an interview with Ezra Klein. Naturally, Mr. Klein let the comment stand. His salary should really be considered a contribution from the Washington Post to the DNC and the unions.

Voucher Fail?

Liberals appear to be happily stomping on what they presume to be the tomb of the voucher movement. This celebration is predicated on the failure of vouchers to be the silver bullet for Milwaukee's educational needs. The Milwaukee voucher pilot demonstrated modest gains at a cost per pupil less than than public schools average expenditure for student. It just seems odd to label something as an outright failure when it yields a slightly better product at a lower cost. Most folks would call that an improvement, not a panacea or silver bullet, but an improvement.

WTF!?!?!

McNabb is a Redskin?

Will the GOP Remain the Old White Crusty Dude Party in Perpetuity

Not necessarily says Gene Healy:

"Yet, here’s an interesting fact: Recent Census Bureau figures predict that the working-age population will be 55 percent minority by midcentury. It may be hard to imagine the Tea Party movement becoming a Rainbow Coalition. But it’s even harder to believe that minority voters will enjoy paying for the (mostly white) baby boomers’ retirement and health care while they’re working to support their own families."

That's an interesting thought but I think the GOP will need to be crushed harder before it decides it needs to market itself towards a more diverse array of voters. Given that this midterm election is going to be a positive one for the GOP it is unlikely that such a change will occur anytime soon.

Gary Becker gets to the biggest aspect of our cost growth in my view- insulation from out of pocket spending-

"Here in the United States," Mr. Becker says, "we spend about 17% of our GDP on health care, but out-of-pocket expenses make up only about 12% of total health-care spending. In Switzerland, where they spend only 11% of GDP on health care, their out-of-pocket expenses equal about 31% of total spending. The difference between 12% and 31% is huge. Once people begin spending substantial sums from their own pockets, they become willing to shop around. Ordinary market incentives begin to operate. A good bill would have encouraged that."

Health Care Passes

Republicans lost, I would argue so did our nation's finances. Things Republicans should focus on in the next congress on improving health care and making it affordable long term:
1. Change the definition of the minimum benefit to HDHP
2. As part of tax reform cap the employer exclusion
3. Enable the purchase of insurance across state lines

Student Loan Reform and Health Care bundled Together

I find this ironic because the methods of financing both higher education and health care are in a general sense quite similar (3rd party payment) and both have exhibited higher than average cost growth without delivering superior outcomes. And the legislation being proposed for both appear to do little to arrest the current trend but at best will reset the baseline a little lower.

Note: The student loan reform proposes to make the government a direct lender to students. This will reduce the interest rates of the loans as they will have to cover for the rate of default but not profit. However, if the interest rates are lower then students can borrow more thus enabling Universities to charge higher tuition thus necessitating greater indebtedness yet from their students. Rinse and repeat so the cycle goes. The only thing that has changed is there isn't a middle man getting a take and for the purposes of reducing public corruption alone that is all to the good (though, during the Clinton years banks had to bid in order to provide lending services which made it a much more transparent and efficient operation). On a positive note the bill does propose plowing some of those savings (a meager amount as most of the savings are used to offset the health care bill) into Pell Grants.

Worst Bio for A Senator

Risk Modeler for AIG? CEO of Lehman Brothers? How about Chief Economist for Bear Stearns? Yes, the former Chief Economist of Bear Stearns, David Malpass, major housing bubble Pollyanna is gearing up for a Senate run. In New York, this background may be overcome but in every other state in the union I would think his background would be an insurmountable obstacle.

Orrin Hatch Has a Very Misleading Op-Ed

Orrin Hatch argues that using reconciliation for health care would be a travesty for democracy. I think the end result of passing health care would be disastrous but not for procedural reasons. The op-ed is misleading as he conveys that broader health care reform would be enacted using reconciliation. This is false. Reconciliation would be used to change a bill that has already been voted on by the Senate and got a supermajority. Reconciliation would only affect those measures that directly impact the budget, such as subsidy levels and revenue provisions. Reconciliation is used to this effect regularly. Republicans used it regrettably with the Medicare Plan D. Again, I am no fan of the health care reform bill but this op-ed is plainly disingenious.

Postal Service

It looks like they are going to cut their Saturday deliveries. I know it is a popular past time to complain about the US Postal Service but I have always been impressed with their service. That said, the only time I am reliant on the post office is for netflix. I am guessing at this point the Post Office's relevance is similarly diminished for most people. Couldn't we shut it down?

Was the Senate's Makeup Solely a Political Bargain

Thus claims Ezra Klein:
"Finally, Will accuses liberals who are not sufficiently respectful of the Senate's undemocratic nature of believing the Founders either "dolts or knaves." This is nonsense. The Founders were trying to entice large states and small states alike into an uncertain union. They solved it as best they could. And as part of their solution, they decided that the Senate should be appointed, not elected."

This is certainly true to some extent, however, verily overstated. The disparate composition of Senate and House are largely a reflection of a balancing act our founders sought to strike between preventing the ascension of a tyrant and mob rule.

Question About Toyota

Any chance the reason the gummint is slamming Toyota has more to do with Government ownership of GM as opposed to safety issues?

More Insurance Equals Better Insurance

This is the underlying premise of health care reform, that we need to further insulate consumers from costs of their health care. I come from the opposite premise; we need to insure against catastrophe and for the most of the population leave it to them to cover predictable expenses. In every other avenue of life, we do not buy a financial product whose sole purpose is to add parties to a predictable transaction. Why should health care be different?

Who Needs the Public Option

I think Obamacare is an Obamanation but it amuses me that progressives find the absence of a public option to be so disheartening. The legislation will force insurers to issue a policy to all that want one, forbids any price differentiation based on risk, guarantees renewal, defines minimum benefit levels, and now effectively establishes price caps. Insurance companies will effectively be public utilities. The only distinguishing factor between insurance companies and the public option would be the statutory authority to use medicare reimbursement rates.

CBO Scuttebutt

One of the things that will be interesting to see with the President's new health care proposal (this is supposed to be a compromise between the Senate and House bills) is how the CBO treats it. At first blush it appears that the revenue and subsidy changes are modest and should only inflate the bill's 10 year budget number slightly. However, in the president's proposal the government would obtain the authority to reject rate hikes by insurers. This coupled with all of the other changes in the bill would in effect reduce insurers to public utilities. It is conceivable that the CBO would decide that premiums paid should thus be recorded on budget thus massively inflating the budget number.

The Bachelor Reunion Show Liveblogging

It's my dirty little secret, I watch the Bachelor. My fondness for the show has an inverse relationship with the douchebagginess of the season's bachelor. This season features air line pilot Jake Pavelka, arguably the biggest douche to ever walk the earth. So I am loving this season.

Anyhow, here's my prediction for the Season finale: Jake picks Vienna. Upon her selection, a sex tape of Vienna makes it onto the internets. Jake reveals in the season wrap up show that Vienna gave him the herp but that he hopes that they will make it through it.

Bitch Set Me Up Volume 87

Marion Barry has been accused of self-dealing for the umpteenth time. How shocking!

Salinger and Sex

I've come across two really interesting essays on the sexual character of Salinger's published and published-but-rigorously-out-of-print writings. This post on the LRB blog offers a theory of the real meaning of "bananafish". This article in Slate extrapolates from a little known hot and sexy essay that Salinger wanted to write about sex and perhaps did until he died. Fascinating.

SOTU Thoughts

President Obama will give the SOTU in five minutes. It will be very interesting to see what remarks he has on health care reform. I can see him going one of three ways: 1. Trying to sell reform and implore the House to finish up the job; 2. Also suggest a path to a scaled down health care bill; 3. Not mentioning it. My guess is he will go with option 1. There is some discussion bubbling up that the House would be willing to vote on the Senate bill if the Senate took up amendments to the Senate version in Reconciliation. The other big expectations are that Obama will publicly push Congress to repeal "Don't Ask, Don't Tell". Obama is also expected to announce a spending freeze in discretionary spending. That is small beer. The other issue to watch out for is financial reform.

The Apple iPad

It will f$%k you up for life. Just Kidding. I don't really get it. It seems like a netbook with a little more content. It looks really pretty and some people think it will be the neatest thing since sliced bread. My track record is horrible on these things.

note: I don't think my predictions were totally off base about the smart car. They haven't taken the world by storm but they are common enough to be considered mainstream (to the extent that driving a clown car can be considered mainstream).