Wednesday, July 12, 2006

MAD...or just plain crazy

I largely agree with the fact that the world is not in danger of full-scale war a la WWII or the Korean Conflict, and that "war" as we know it will consist of small-scale actions against both rogue states and stateless organizations (read: Al Qaeda and its many, many progeny). The two nations existing as exceptions, in my estimation, reflect 2/3 of the famed Axis of Evil. [cue ominous music] North Korea and Iran both maintain large, semi-equipped forces. Both are geographically smackdab in the middle of potentially explosive international tensions. Both are governed by fellows three-sheets-to-the-wind on power and extremism. While the forces and those governing them are not as large of a concern, the geography of each situation is what makes things infinitely more complicated.

While I believe KJI is primarily a lunatic lording over a tragically malnourished populace, and that his actions largely consist of harmless saber-rattling - he has to at least know that if he were to lob a missile and actually strike Japan, it would be his downfall, one way or another - I don't think we can safely assume that he is not dangerous and his actions are not provocative, particularly to those in the same region. Containment with North Korea has worked, for the most part, in that there have been no serious incidents. In order for containment to continue to work, North Korea and the U.S. have to play along.

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