Monday, May 23, 2011
Unemployement is stuck around 9% and gas is hovering around 4$ a gallon. While I believe Obama is likely to get re-elected, so long as the economy sucks this is no sure thing and if the economy were to backslide (hello Spanish or Italian default and the resulting havoc on every Americans 401k) I could imagine just about anybody beating Obama. Ergo, if I were a Republican candidate considering running I would go ahead and do so. There is no clear favorite in the primary and whoever emerges has a good chance at victory without lifting a finger. On to my predictions: I think the Republican nominee will be Tim Pawlenty and if unemployment hits 9.5% or above by October 2012 he will be President.