Monday, September 03, 2007

Jockeying for the First Primary

Traditionally Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are the first primaries (or caucus for Iowa). The DNC added Nevada to the mix. A number of states, notably Florida and Michigan, are attempting to move up their primaries ahead of the four aforementioned states' primaries. Howard Dean and the DNC have threatened to exclude Florida and Michigan's state delegates from the nominating convention if they do so. My question is whether this actually represents much of a threat? The party conventions no longer nominate candidates. I think the last convention where a candidate was nominated was when Hubert Humphrey won the 1968 nomination in Chicago. Nowadays the nomination is wrapped up well in advance of the convention and the convention is essentially a fundraising/ad orgy. Whereas the primaries, especially the early primaries, have incredible influence over who will be the eventual nominee. I would think that Michigan and Florida would wield far greater influence over the course of the Democratic nomination if they pushed their primaries ahead of the others and lost out on being able to attend the convention than the other way around. Am I wrong?

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