Monday, July 17, 2006

Hatch and Pawlenty: Neck-and-Neck

The same Minnesota Poll referenced below by Anti-Everything also showed the-one-the-only Teflon Tim Pawlenty running just about dead even with DFL challenger Mike Hatch. The spread is 43% Pawlenty and 41% Hatch. A few interesting things to note about these numbers:
  • As Lori Sturdevant noted in yesterday's Strib, the DFL candidates have had a rocky start this summer. From the inimical Keith Ellison, to the dust-up over a Hatch-Entenza feud, to the Ember Reichgott-Junge bitch-slap, us DFLers have not made things easy on ourselves, per usual. The poll, however, was conducted July 6-11, which was right in the thick of some of this bad press. Being that voters typically respond more negatively to candidates and parties in the throes of negative news, the numbers for Hatch and Klobuchar are helpful.
  • I'm very interested in the comparison of these two races. A lot of people support Klobuchar not only because of party, but because of profession (prosecutor) and gender (female). Both bode very well for her, especially against Kennedy, who the entire state watched demonize one of its most beloved icons, Patty Wetterling, two years ago. Hatch and Pawlenty, on the other hand, are both shrewd, seasoned politicians, who've already won statewide races. That may prove to be more of a slugfest.
  • It's also interesting to note that the Strib Minnesota Poll is one of the most accurate in the country. For whatever that's worth...

1 comment:

xtrachromosomeconservative said...

For what's worth, the Minnesota Poll is one of the worst. They have consistently blown it. I mean, absurdly bad. Pioneer Press contracts with Mason Dixon and has been much more accurate in the last sevearl elections. They had the most accurate polls nationwide in 2002. Rasmussen had the most accurate prediction for the presidential election in '04. You should look at the predicted and actual results for the Minnesota Poll over the last several elections. Embarassing. Rasmussen has Klouchbar about 3 points higher than kennedy. The last poll was 2 weeks ago, so there may have been some movement but not that much.