Gallup and Rasmussen...

have some explaining to do.

Review of the Master

The movie sucks.  Don't watch it.  Just saved you $10.  If you want to watch a movie by Paul Thomas Anderson rent Boogie Nights instead.

Apple's Main Threat

Is not Google.  It is not Microsoft.  It is Amazon.  If Dan Frommer's speculation about the Kindle Phone comes to fruition I think Amazon will claim a sizeable share of the smartphone market.  Frommer thinks that Amazon might do what it is now doing with the Kindle Fire 4G LTE which "buying wholesale data capacity directly from AT&T (as it's doing here, and as it does for the 3G Kindle), and charging a lot less for an entry-level smartphone plan than its competition."  The Kindle Fire 4G LTE data plan is $50 annually for 250 MB a month of data.  That is not a lot of data, especially for a tablet.  I use between half a gig and a gig each month.  But you can imagine a phone which has LTE that is $299 and instead of paying a combined $50-100 a month for minutes, texts, and data you pay $10 a month for data and use apps for free texting and google voice or skype for calls.  The software won't be as nice as iOS and the hardware won't be anywhere near as pretty or substantial but over the life of the contract savings could be between $1k-2k.  That will be enough to get a lot of people to think about changing and would be disruptive to Apple, not ruinous, but disruptive.

Infrastructure in the US

I thought this was a great passage from a piece by Stephen Smith:
"The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey is spending $3.8 billion on a single subway station at the World Trade Center designed by Santiago Calatrava, a Spanish architect known for his costly projects. If New York could build subways at the prices that Paris and Tokyo pay, $3.8 billion would be enough to build the entire Second Avenue subway, from Harlem to the Financial District. "

Smith lays part of the blame at excessive outsourcing.  I think there is a lot of truth to this.  One reason public managers rely on outsourcing as much as they do in the public sector is that they are trying to get around personnel restrictions: 1. the municpality/state/federal pay scale may not be competitive for certain fields (IT comes to mind); 2. it is much easier to fire contractors than civil servants (especially unionized civil servants).  The latter reason is unfortunate because when you pay for that flexibility the cost is very dear.

Samsung Galaxy Note and a Note on Names

The Verge has a review of Samsungs latest and greatest tablet-the Samsung Galaxy Note 10.1.  I never understand why manufacturers have some of these awful names.  The Note part I get.  The big feature of this new Tablet is stylus integration.  Why Galaxy?  Why not just call it the Samsung Note?   Then Samsung would have two  tablet product lines, the Samsung Tab and the Samsung Note which would be differentiated by the presence of a bundled stylus.

Thoughts on Ryan VP

Ryan is a marginally better pick than the typical republican VP pick from a base broadening perspective as he is a young white male as opposed to an old white male.  This pick represents either foolishness or confidence on the part of Romney.  Ryan is energetic, charismatic, and has a great command of policy (which amazingly very few politicians do).   In terms of what he brings to the table from an electoral standpoint, my guess is the following:
-firms up the base, the ryan budgets have been bold political documents that slaughter many sacred cows (thus why they are political documents as opposed to public law)
-I think he will appeal to moderates for whom medicare isn't yet on their mind (under 50)
-I think he might move the needle a bit with women (he is good looking)
What  does he take off the table-
-Scaring people about medicare
-Dampens support amongst old white people, see the point immediately above

Ryan and Obama have both proposed taking an axe to medicare.  Their methods of doing so, IPAB v. shifting to a premium support model/competitive bidding, is very different.  But in the end, both are proposing similar cuts and and the same growth rates for Medicare (GDP +.5%).  Going after Obama on Medicare would have been very cynical but probably quite successful.  Picking Ryan takes this option off the table.  It's a good thing for the country regardless of the outcome.

Ryan has also proposed block granting medicaid.  I don't think this will move the needle.  People that oppose this weren't voting for Romney.  People that support it are already voting for Romney.   People that haven't thought about it won't spend the time to think about it now.

Ryan might make Wisconsin competitive.  I doubt it but he might.

Thoughts on the Future of Higher Ed

From somebody who is smarter than me and a much better writer: http://benjaminlima.wordpress.com/2012/07/17/massive-online-learning-and-the-unbundling-of-undergraduate-education/.

Give it a look.

Belated Thoughts on the Olympics Twitter Expulsions

I don't believe that athletes should be expelled from the olympics for saying offensive things.  Many of these athletes are young and foolish but nonetheless have made a tremendous personal sacrifice to make it to the olympics and this sacrifice should not be negated by an idiotic tweet. I think public censure is sufficient punishment by itself.

Two Cents on Gun Control

I favor gun control, primarily executed through rigorous licensing.  I think that if you want to own guns that you should actually be trained in their use and care to the point that you are a skilled marksmen and are capable of maintaining them.  Such licensing should be provided by the state and the possession of a valid license should be necessary for a sale.  That said, it seems like pandora's box has been opened long ago.  There are almost as many guns as there are people and tracking them down is sure to be nearly impossible. 

Paying to Keep the Insurer and Providers Lights On

Austin Frakt had a very intersting blog post several months ago where he tried to argue why it is sensible to have insurance cover routine predictable expenses.  He cites two principle reasons: 1. the tax subsidy, 2. Insurer's bargaining power.  I am less interested in the first reason but more with the second.  I think it is obvious that insurers through their bulk purchases can obtain discounts that individuals cannot.  That said, what I find amusing is this ignores the fact that much of what you are paying for when you go to a provider is the overhead associated with chasing a reimbursable.  If everybody paid cash (or a near substitute like the medical equivalent of a food stamp) I would imagine much of the direct and indirect costs a doctor incurs (and then passes along to you the consumer) would disappear.  The question then becomes do these cost savings outweigh the bargaining discounts the insurer is able to obtain.

Thoughts on Possible VP Picks

Typically VPs are sought for electoral reasons.  Sometimes the VP is picked becasue he might put a state into play or keep a borderline state out of play.  Sometimes the VP is picked to compensate for deficiencies of the president.  Cheney brought experience to the the ticket.  Biden is a white male.  There are a lot of areas where Romney needs "balance".  Romney is a mormon which presents an unfortunate ick factor for most Americans regardless of party or religiosity.  Romney is also a bit aloof and out of touch with the every man (I suppose this is an organic result of being worth a quarter billion).  These two factors have many suggesting Tim Pawlenty as a running mate.  Pawlenty is certainly the "right" religion to reassure the base and he is a natural born retail politician.  That said, there are a couple of areas where Pawlenty concerns me as a potential veep.  I am no expert on Minnesota affairs but it is not clear that Pawlenty excelled in any particular area as a govenor and one can argue that he was not a very good govenor.  But, more troubling is something that is beyond his control and is ultimately unfair.  Pawlenty is a white male.  The Republican party is just now beginning to cultivate political talent from a broader demographic spectrum (I might add, this I think was the only clear positive of Palin's presence on the ticket in 08, an overwhelming positive given the fact that McCain didn't have a chance in hell).  Pawlenty is not going to put Minnesota in play.  Portman probably won't move the needle on Ohio.  Romney is going to win or lose because the economy is perceived to be getting worse or better.  With that in mind, Romney can afford to take a long view and to continue the process of cultivating political talent outside of white males within the Republican party and to truly make it a big tent party*.

*Obviously things like not gay bashing and talking about rounding up immigrants and deporting them would help too, but...baby steps.

Thoughts on Obamacare Ruling

Conservatives may well be bummed that the Court didn't bail them out on Obamacare but this was ultimately a good ruling.  The Court respected the political process and did actually put some constraints on how the commerce clause is used.  This goes back to the political process though, and this is where conservatives failed back when Obamacare was passed.  There was one argument that was risible on its face and this is the one Conservatives hung their hat on: nothing needs to be done, everything is ok. 

Obamacare is bad law (though, I think in 10-20 years might be acceptable do to the impact of the cadillac tax finally taking hold) but not unredeemable.  There needs to be a risk pool and a mandate is the simplest and most elegant way of pooling risk.  Where the mandate is troublesome is that the level of coverage mandated is onerous for middle class families.  There are two manners in which this can be remediated (and both should be done)-

1. Equalize the tax treatment for those receiving their health care through their employer and those paying for it themselves (preferably by capping and phasing out the tax exlusion).  There will be a decent subset of the population who makes enough money to not qualify for meaningful subsidies but not so much that paying 15k for a family plan is a realistic option.

2. Which brings us to our second action item.  Reorganize Obamacare and the subsidies around catastrophic plans.  If your insurer has to pay for the first dollar the coverage will be that much more expensive. It is stupid to add parties to routine (or non-routine) predictable expenses.  When purchase something through a third party as opposed to the provider directly you have to pay enough so that both parties can keep their lights on.  That is the principle reason why premiums are so high.  If you have a high deductible your premiums will be a fraction of the cost and the premium savings will be sufficient to cover the deductible*.  The net result will be the subsidies will be less and the mandate will be much less onerous as it will be much easier to avoid.

Republicans have a decent shot of winning the Presidency, the Senate, and the House. Everybody needs real insurance and a decent society provides for this. 

*Most folks would rarely come close to reaching their deductible limit and thus would be paying for most of their care out of pocket.  Again, the premium savings make this eminently doable.  Where this approach is more difficult from a cash flow perspective is for the chronically ill.  While the numbers may not be different if you are reaching the full deductible (they may in fact be less), first dollar coverage functions almost like a forced savings program.

Obama Gay Marriage Announcement

I think it is great that Obama has endorsed gay marriage (only three years after Dick Cheney and after Joe Biden flushed him out but it still counts).  Apparently he is confident that he doesn't need Ohio to win the presidency (I think he is correct on this point).  What I haven't understood is why Republicans haven't sought to finesse the gay marriage issue through a libertarian or federalism angle.  Well, that is not true, I do understand why, you can simply oppose gay marriage as means of bashing gays....but.. I have always thought the right could coalesce around something along the lines of the following:

"We believe that two consenting, unrelated adults should be able to form a union as they see fit.  Many people in this country are religious and consider marriage a sacrament and the exclusive realm of the church.  As such, we don't think the state should call it marriage but rather a civil union whether it be hetorsexual or same-sex and that the same benefits and privileges should attach all civil unions whether they be heterosexual or same-sex". 

Obviously you leave gay bashing on the table which so many on the right apparently can't resist. However, I do think there are a lot of folks who are beholden to a soft or more benign form of bigotry that this would obviate and maybe move them forward in their acceptance of the gay community a bit as well.  my two cents.

Samsung Galaxy Note

I was at Best Buy and saw the Samsung Galaxy Note. It is massive. While a phone it is so large that really it is closer in size to being a small tablet. I don't know that it would fit in anybody's pants' pockets. That said, the screen is absolutely brilliant. Amazing colors and resolution. I can imagine this phone may appeal to women (it will fit just fine in a purse) and people that can palm a basketball.

The Land of the Free

Our Prison system:
'Hulin’s case was unusual: most prisoners who get raped do not write letters to the warden. It isn’t hard to see why: resisting an inmate who claims your body as his own, or, worse, acquiring a reputation as a “snitch,” can turn an isolated incident into months of serial gang rape. Just ask Roderick Johnson, a petty thief who was attacked by his roommate shortly after arriving at a Texas prison. Johnson asked to be transferred to a different section of the facility, and got his wish. But news of Johnson’s physical availability had spread throughout the complex—after you’re raped once, you’re marked—and he was soon enslaved by a gang. In addition to passing Johnson around among themselves, Johnson’s new overseers sold his ass and mouth to a variety of clients for $3 to $7, a competitive enough price that it resulted in multiple rapes every day for the eighteen months that Johnson spent in prison. When he went to the authorities, they laughed and told him to “fight or fuck.”'

To The People of Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri

You will never see men with the last names Taint or Smegma win the presidency...neither will Rick Santourum.

The People of Florida

unlike the Republican primary voters of South Carolina do not hate America.

To the People of South Carolina

Not since Fort Sumter have you done something so stupid.

Time for a Quarterly Blog Post- Republican Strategy Edition

Romney, multimillionaire, King of Private Equity, Creative Destroyer of Jobs, barring some unforseen campaign mishap (per Edwin Edwards- being caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy), will be the Republican Presidential nominee. As Romney is filthy rich he will be particularly vulnerable to charges of being out of touch or being in bed with Wall Street. The latter charge may or may not be accurate but is a bit spurious considering his opponent, the President, will in all likelihood obtain more campaign contributions than Romney from Wall Street (probably including Bain, Romney's old firm) and considering that under President Obama those Too Big to Fail firms have simply gotten bigger and are at the current rate becoming Too Big to Save. That aside, one way for Romney to mitigate this weakness is to propose a revenue neutral financial transactions tax. As it is revenue neutral this shouldn't piss off the base much and if he were to propose the proceeds go towards offsetting the employer portion of the payroll tax to stimulate hiring such a proposal would also appeal to moderates and some disenchanted Democrats. Anyhow, Romney Campaign, you are welcome.

Financial Transactions Tax

Tom Harkin and Peter DeFazio are introducing a Financial Transactions Tax (or a Tobin Tax). They should be commended for doing so and Republicans should engage them (though they are unlikely to do so). We will need greater revenues but in the short term the revenues could be used as an offset to the employer portion of the payroll tax providing a greater incentive to firms to expand hiring.